Izu, Bonin and Mariana Islands
A normal week
Usual probability of a strong earthquake (magnitude 6.0 or larger) in this region until
6.5%
After the magnitude 5.4 earthquake on , the probability of a larger one within 50 km of the epicenter until , calculated when the earthquake occurred, is not above the average after an earthquake like this.
This region has a hypothesis under evaluation: it is in the region's forecast.
Namazu: earthquake forecast for Izu, Bonin and Mariana Islands, with data as of .
After an earthquake
After the magnitude 5.4 earthquake on , the probability of another one of magnitude 5.5 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until , calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 1.3%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time.
| Period | Magnitude 5.0 or larger | Magnitude 6.0 or larger | Magnitude 7.0 or larger |
|---|---|---|---|
| Until | 61.2% | 6.5% | 0.5% |
| Until | 99.1% | 24.6% | 2.1% |
| Until | 95.8% | 21.0% |
Authorities
- Japan: Cabinet Office, Disaster Management (Bosai); Fire and Disaster Management Agency (FDMA): bousai.go.jp Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA): jma.go.jp
- Northern Mariana Islands: Check with your local authority.
- Guam: Guam Homeland Security / Office of Civil Defense (GHS/OCD): ghs.guam.gov Check with your local authority.
- Federated States of Micronesia: Check with your local authority.
Our hypothesis under evaluation
This hypothesis takes into account the recent large earthquakes in the region and the aftershocks they may still produce, given the time since each one; the usual probability includes aftershocks in its long-run average, but does not rise while a sequence is under way. With it, the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region until is 7.0%; the usual probability is 6.5%. It is not validated yet: it is our theory, and we show it so you have more to go on. Check with your local authority.
The live validation of this hypothesis has 0 of 52 weeks already judged. How it is validated
Namazu does not guess; it measures. These are probabilities. Data: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); Time zones: contains information from timezone-boundary-builder (https://github.com/evansiroky/timezone-boundary-builder), made available under the Open Database License (ODbL) (https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/)
Bulletins for this regionData as of
Sources
- Data: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
- Time zones: contains information from timezone-boundary-builder (https://github.com/evansiroky/timezone-boundary-builder), made available under the Open Database License (ODbL) (https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/)