Japan, Kuril Islands and Kamchatka
More active due to the earthquake on
Probability of another of magnitude 5.1 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until , calculated when the earthquake on occurred:
8.7%
On average, after an earthquake like this: 5.4%. This figure is 1.6 times the average.
This region has a hypothesis under evaluation: it is in the region's forecast.
Namazu: earthquake forecast for Japan, Kuril Islands and Kamchatka, with data as of .
After an earthquake
After the magnitude 6.0 earthquake on , the probability of another one of magnitude 6.1 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter, from to , is 0.2%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time.
The map shows where more aftershocks of the magnitude 6.0 earthquake on are expected, in colors relative to this same map: the colors are not figures or instructions and cannot be used to compare it with other maps. After an earthquake
After the magnitude 6.0 earthquake on , the probability of another one of magnitude 6.1 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until , calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 0.7%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time.
After an earthquake
After the magnitude 5.5 earthquake on , the probability of another one of magnitude 5.6 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter, from to , is 0.4%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time.
After an earthquake
After the magnitude 5.5 earthquake on , the probability of another one of magnitude 5.6 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until , calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 3.3%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time.
After an earthquake
After the magnitude 5.0 earthquake on , the probability of another one of magnitude 5.1 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter, from to , is 1.0%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time.
After an earthquake
After the magnitude 5.0 earthquake on , the probability of another one of magnitude 5.1 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until , calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 8.7%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time.
| Period | Magnitude 5.0 or larger | Magnitude 6.0 or larger | Magnitude 7.0 or larger |
|---|---|---|---|
| Until | 83.5% | 19.4% | 3.2% |
| Until | more than 99.9% | 58.2% | 12.2% |
| Until | more than 99.9% | 78.7% |
Authorities
- Russia: Ministry of the Russian Federation for Civil Defence, Emergencies and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters (EMERCOM / MChS): mchs.gov.ru Check with your local authority.
- Japan: Cabinet Office, Disaster Management (Bosai); Fire and Disaster Management Agency (FDMA): bousai.go.jp Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA): jma.go.jp
- China: Ministry of Emergency Management of the People's Republic of China (MEM): mem.gov.cn Check with your local authority.
- South Korea: Ministry of the Interior and Safety (MOIS): mois.go.kr Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA): kma.go.kr
- North Korea: Check with your local authority.
Our hypothesis under evaluation
This hypothesis takes into account the recent large earthquakes in the region and the aftershocks they may still produce, given the time since each one; the usual probability includes aftershocks in its long-run average, but does not rise while a sequence is under way. With it, the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region until is 23.3%; the usual probability is 19.4%. It is not validated yet: it is our theory, and we show it so you have more to go on. Check with your local authority.
The live validation of this hypothesis has 0 of 52 weeks already judged. How it is validated
Namazu does not guess; it measures. These are probabilities. Data: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); Time zones: contains information from timezone-boundary-builder (https://github.com/evansiroky/timezone-boundary-builder), made available under the Open Database License (ODbL) (https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/)
Bulletins for this regionData as of
Sources
- Data: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
- Time zones: contains information from timezone-boundary-builder (https://github.com/evansiroky/timezone-boundary-builder), made available under the Open Database License (ODbL) (https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/)