Panama, Colombia and Ecuador
More active due to the earthquake on
Probability of another of magnitude 5.3 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until , calculated when the earthquake on occurred:
11.7%
On average, after an earthquake like this: 5.4%. This figure is 2.2 times the average.
This region has a hypothesis under evaluation: it is in the region's forecast.
Namazu: earthquake forecast for Panama, Colombia and Ecuador, with data as of .
After an earthquake
After the magnitude 5.2 earthquake on , the probability of another one of magnitude 5.3 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter, from to , is 4.9%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time.
After an earthquake
After the magnitude 5.2 earthquake on , the probability of another one of magnitude 5.3 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until , calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 11.7%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time.
After an earthquake
After the magnitude 5.0 earthquake on , the probability of another one of magnitude 5.1 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until , calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 8.7%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time.
| Period | Magnitude 5.0 or larger | Magnitude 6.0 or larger | Magnitude 7.0 or larger |
|---|---|---|---|
| Until | 29.4% | 4.5% | 0.6% |
| Until | 76.9% | 18.1% | 2.4% |
| Until | 92.2% | 22.2% |
Authorities
- Colombia: Unidad Nacional para la Gestión del Riesgo de Desastres (UNGRD): portal.gestiondelriesgo.gov.co Check with your local authority.
- Ecuador: Servicio Nacional de Gestión de Riesgos y Emergencias: gestionderiesgos.gob.ec Instituto Geofísico de la Escuela Politécnica Nacional (IG-EPN): igepn.edu.ec
- Peru: Check with your local authority. Instituto Geofísico del Perú (IGP), Centro Sismológico Nacional (CENSIS): ultimosismo.igp.gob.pe
- Panama: Check with your local authority. Instituto de Geociencias, Universidad de Panamá (IGC-UP): sismosgeociencias.up.ac.pa
- Venezuela: Dirección Nacional de Protección Civil y Administración de Desastres (DNPCAD): pcivil.gob.ve Check with your local authority.
- Costa Rica: Check with your local authority. Red Sismológica Nacional (RSN: UCR-ICE): rsn.ucr.ac.cr
Our hypothesis under evaluation
This hypothesis takes into account the recent large earthquakes in the region and the aftershocks they may still produce, given the time since each one; the usual probability includes aftershocks in its long-run average, but does not rise while a sequence is under way. With it, the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region until is 10.9%; the usual probability is 4.5%. It is not validated yet: it is our theory, and we show it so you have more to go on. Check with your local authority.
The live validation of this hypothesis has 0 of 52 weeks already judged. How it is validated
Namazu does not guess; it measures. These are probabilities. Data: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); Time zones: contains information from timezone-boundary-builder (https://github.com/evansiroky/timezone-boundary-builder), made available under the Open Database License (ODbL) (https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/)
Bulletins for this regionData as of
Sources
- Data: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
- Time zones: contains information from timezone-boundary-builder (https://github.com/evansiroky/timezone-boundary-builder), made available under the Open Database License (ODbL) (https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/)