Peru
A normal week
Usual probability of a strong earthquake (magnitude 6.0 or larger) in this region until
4.8%
This region has a hypothesis under evaluation: it is in the region's forecast.
Namazu: earthquake forecast for Peru, with data as of .
| Period | Magnitude 5.0 or larger | Magnitude 6.0 or larger | Magnitude 7.0 or larger |
|---|---|---|---|
| Until | 36.2% | 4.8% | 1.1% |
| Until | 83.7% | 18.0% | 4.5% |
| Until | 92.3% | 45.4% |
Authorities
- Peru: Check with your local authority. Instituto Geofísico del Perú (IGP), Centro Sismológico Nacional (CENSIS): ultimosismo.igp.gob.pe
- Brazil: Secretaria Nacional de Proteção e Defesa Civil (Ministério da Integração e do Desenvolvimento Regional): gov.br Check with your local authority.
- Bolivia: Check with your local authority. Observatorio San Calixto: osc.org.bo
- Ecuador: Servicio Nacional de Gestión de Riesgos y Emergencias: gestionderiesgos.gob.ec Instituto Geofísico de la Escuela Politécnica Nacional (IG-EPN): igepn.edu.ec
- Chile: Servicio Nacional de Prevención y Respuesta ante Desastres (SENAPRED): senapred.cl Centro Sismológico Nacional, Universidad de Chile (CSN): sismologia.cl
- Colombia: Unidad Nacional para la Gestión del Riesgo de Desastres (UNGRD): portal.gestiondelriesgo.gov.co Check with your local authority.
Our hypothesis under evaluation
This hypothesis takes into account the recent large earthquakes in the region and the aftershocks they may still produce, given the time since each one; the usual probability includes aftershocks in its long-run average, but does not rise while a sequence is under way. With it, the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region until is 5.1%; the usual probability is 4.8%. It is not validated yet: it is our theory, and we show it so you have more to go on. Check with your local authority.
The live validation of this hypothesis has 0 of 52 weeks already judged. How it is validated
Namazu does not guess; it measures. These are probabilities. Data: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); Time zones: contains information from timezone-boundary-builder (https://github.com/evansiroky/timezone-boundary-builder), made available under the Open Database License (ODbL) (https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/)
Bulletins for this regionData as of
Sources
- Data: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
- Time zones: contains information from timezone-boundary-builder (https://github.com/evansiroky/timezone-boundary-builder), made available under the Open Database License (ODbL) (https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/)