Tonga, Kermadec and New Zealand
More active due to the earthquake on
Probability of another of magnitude 5.1 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until , calculated when the earthquake on occurred:
13.5%
On average, after an earthquake like this: 5.4%. This figure is 2.5 times the average.
Namazu: earthquake forecast for Tonga, Kermadec and New Zealand, with data as of .
After an earthquake
After the magnitude 5.0 earthquake on , the probability of another one of magnitude 5.1 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until , calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 13.5%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time.
After an earthquake
After the magnitude 5.5 earthquake on , the probability of another one of magnitude 5.6 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until , calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 1.1%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time.
| Period | Magnitude 5.0 or larger | Magnitude 6.0 or larger | Magnitude 7.0 or larger |
|---|---|---|---|
| Until | 97.0% | 25.6% | 2.8% |
| Until | more than 99.9% | 70.0% | 11.5% |
| Until | more than 99.9% | 81.1% |
Authorities
- New Zealand: Check with your local authority. GeoNet (Earth Sciences New Zealand, with Natural Hazards Commission and LINZ): geonet.org.nz
- Fiji: Check with your local authority.
- Tonga: Check with your local authority. Tonga Meteorological Services (Ministry of MEIDECC): met.gov.to
- Samoa: Disaster Management Office, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MNRE): mnre.gov.ws Check with your local authority.
- American Samoa: Check with your local authority.
- Wallis and Futuna: Préfet des îles Wallis et Futuna (services de l'État, sécurité civile): wallis-et-futuna.gouv.fr Check with your local authority.
- Niue: Niue Disaster Management (Government of Niue): gov.nu Check with your local authority.
- New Caledonia: Gouvernement de la Nouvelle-Calédonie (sécurité civile); Haut-commissariat de la République: gouv.nc Check with your local authority.
Namazu does not guess; it measures. These are probabilities. Data: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); Time zones: contains information from timezone-boundary-builder (https://github.com/evansiroky/timezone-boundary-builder), made available under the Open Database License (ODbL) (https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/)
Bulletins for this regionData as of
Sources
- Data: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
- Time zones: contains information from timezone-boundary-builder (https://github.com/evansiroky/timezone-boundary-builder), made available under the Open Database License (ODbL) (https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/)