Vanuatu, Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea
More active due to the earthquake on
Probability of another of magnitude 5.5 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until , calculated when the earthquake on occurred:
10.1%
On average, after an earthquake like this: 5.4%. This figure is 1.9 times the average.
Namazu: earthquake forecast for Vanuatu, Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea, with data as of .
After an earthquake
After the magnitude 5.1 earthquake on , the probability of another one of magnitude 5.2 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter, from to , is 0.3%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time.
After an earthquake
After the magnitude 5.1 earthquake on , the probability of another one of magnitude 5.2 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until , calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 1.7%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time.
After an earthquake
After the magnitude 6.2 earthquake on , the probability of another one of magnitude 6.3 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter, from to , is 0.2%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time.
The map shows where more aftershocks of the magnitude 6.2 earthquake on are expected, in colors relative to this same map: the colors are not figures or instructions and cannot be used to compare it with other maps. After an earthquake
After the magnitude 6.2 earthquake on , the probability of another one of magnitude 6.3 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until , calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 1.0%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time.
After an earthquake
After the magnitude 5.7 earthquake on , the probability of another one of magnitude 5.8 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter, from to , is 0.7%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time.
After an earthquake
After the magnitude 5.7 earthquake on , the probability of another one of magnitude 5.8 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until , calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 4.8%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time.
After an earthquake
After the magnitude 5.4 earthquake on , the probability of another one of magnitude 5.5 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter, from to , is 1.8%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time.
After an earthquake
After the magnitude 5.4 earthquake on , the probability of another one of magnitude 5.5 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until , calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 10.1%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time.
| Period | Magnitude 5.0 or larger | Magnitude 6.0 or larger | Magnitude 7.0 or larger |
|---|---|---|---|
| Until | 95.5% | 31.1% | 4.3% |
| Until | more than 99.9% | 79.4% | 16.2% |
| Until | more than 99.9% | 88.7% |
Authorities
- Papua New Guinea: Check with your local authority.
- Solomon Islands: Check with your local authority. Geological Survey Division, Ministry of Mines, Energy and Rural Electrification (MMERE): mmere.gov.sb
- Vanuatu: National Disaster Management Office (NDMO): ndmo.gov.vu Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department (VMGD): vmgd.gov.vu
- New Caledonia: Gouvernement de la Nouvelle-Calédonie (sécurité civile); Haut-commissariat de la République: gouv.nc Check with your local authority.
- Australia: Check with your local authority. Geoscience Australia (National Earthquake Alerts Centre): ga.gov.au
- Federated States of Micronesia: Check with your local authority.
Namazu does not guess; it measures. These are probabilities. Data: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); Time zones: contains information from timezone-boundary-builder (https://github.com/evansiroky/timezone-boundary-builder), made available under the Open Database License (ODbL) (https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/)
Bulletins for this regionData as of
Sources
- Data: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
- Time zones: contains information from timezone-boundary-builder (https://github.com/evansiroky/timezone-boundary-builder), made available under the Open Database License (ODbL) (https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/)