Bulletin e2e7fd1c242c

Namazu: earthquake forecast for Aleutian Islands and Alaska, with data as of November 1, 2026, 15:00 (UTC−9).

After the magnitude 5.0 earthquake on October 29, 2026, 09:14 (nautical time, UTC−11), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.1 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter, from November 1, 2026, 13:00 (nautical time, UTC−11) to November 5, 2026, 09:14 (nautical time, UTC−11), is 2.0%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time.

After the magnitude 5.0 earthquake on October 29, 2026, 09:14 (nautical time, UTC−11), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.1 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until November 5, 2026, 09:14 (nautical time, UTC−11), calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 8.7%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time.

From November 1, 2026, 15:00 (UTC−9) to November 8, 2026, 15:00 (UTC−9), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or larger in the region is 54.8%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length.

From November 1, 2026, 15:00 (UTC−9) to November 8, 2026, 15:00 (UTC−9), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is 9.8%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length.

From November 1, 2026, 15:00 (UTC−9) to November 8, 2026, 15:00 (UTC−9), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 1.4%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length.

From November 1, 2026, 15:00 (UTC−9) to December 1, 2026, 15:00 (UTC−9), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or larger in the region is 96.6%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length.

From November 1, 2026, 15:00 (UTC−9) to December 1, 2026, 15:00 (UTC−9), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is 33.6%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length.

From November 1, 2026, 15:00 (UTC−9) to December 1, 2026, 15:00 (UTC−9), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 6.2%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length.

From November 1, 2026, 15:00 (UTC−9) to November 1, 2027, 16:00 (UTC−8), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is more than 99.9%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length.

From November 1, 2026, 15:00 (UTC−9) to November 1, 2027, 16:00 (UTC−8), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 62.2%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length.

United States: Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA): https://www.fema.gov USGS National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC): https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/national-earthquake-information-center-neic

Canada: Public Safety Canada / Sécurité publique Canada: https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca Check with your local authority.

Russia: Ministry of the Russian Federation for Civil Defence, Emergencies and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters (EMERCOM / MChS): https://mchs.gov.ru/ Check with your local authority.

Whether this bulletin is still current, was replaced or was annulled, and the aftershock zone of each earthquake, are at https://proyectonamazu.com/en/aleutianas-alaska/boletin/e2e7fd1c242c374400e9518a484dcf373423a3b17eebe2fc7c4f6ac48dc6d5e9

Namazu does not guess; it measures. These are probabilities. Data: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); Time zones: contains information from timezone-boundary-builder (https://github.com/evansiroky/timezone-boundary-builder), made available under the Open Database License (ODbL) (https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/)

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