Bulletin 10c9af00ad24
Issued on
Namazu: earthquake forecast for Philippines and Taiwan, with data as of November 2, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8). After the magnitude 5.7 earthquake on October 29, 2026, 11:19 (nautical time, UTC+8), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.8 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until November 5, 2026, 11:19 (nautical time, UTC+8), calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 12.7%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. After the magnitude 5.8 earthquake on October 29, 2026, 11:19 (nautical time, UTC+8), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.9 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter, from November 2, 2026, 08:00 (nautical time, UTC+8) to November 5, 2026, 11:19 (nautical time, UTC+8), is 2.3%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. After the magnitude 5.2 earthquake on October 28, 2026, 09:11 (time at the location, UTC+8), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.3 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter, from November 2, 2026, 08:00 (time at the location, UTC+8) to November 4, 2026, 09:11 (time at the location, UTC+8), is 1.4%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. After the magnitude 5.2 earthquake on October 28, 2026, 09:11 (time at the location, UTC+8), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.3 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until November 4, 2026, 09:11 (time at the location, UTC+8), calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 12.0%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. From November 2, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8) to November 9, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or larger in the region is 76.3%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8) to November 9, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is 13.7%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8) to November 9, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 1.4%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8) to December 2, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or larger in the region is 99.8%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8) to December 2, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is 47.4%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8) to December 2, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 6.2%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8) to November 2, 2027, 08:00 (UTC+8), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is more than 99.9%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8) to November 2, 2027, 08:00 (UTC+8), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 56.5%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. Philippines: Check with your local authority. Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), DOST: https://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/ Taiwan: National Fire Agency, Ministry of the Interior: https://www.nfa.gov.tw/eng/index.php Central Weather Administration (CWA): https://www.cwa.gov.tw/eng/ Malaysia: National Disaster Management Agency (NADMA): https://www.nadma.gov.my/ Malaysian Meteorological Department (MET Malaysia): https://www.met.gov.my/ Japan: Cabinet Office, Disaster Management (Bosai); Fire and Disaster Management Agency (FDMA): https://www.bousai.go.jp/ Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA): https://www.jma.go.jp/jma/indexe.html China: Ministry of Emergency Management of the People's Republic of China (MEM): https://www.mem.gov.cn/ Check with your local authority. Indonesia: National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB): https://www.bnpb.go.id/ Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG): https://www.bmkg.go.id/ Whether this bulletin is still current, was replaced or was annulled, and the aftershock zone of each earthquake, are at https://proyectonamazu.com/en/filipinas-taiwan/boletin/10c9af00ad24fe079311b900f42927f7dcacbcb4bb9b30e743e3c4be54c62191 Namazu does not guess; it measures. These are probabilities. Data: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); Time zones: contains information from timezone-boundary-builder (https://github.com/evansiroky/timezone-boundary-builder), made available under the Open Database License (ODbL) (https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/)
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- 10c9af00ad24fe079311b900f42927f7dcacbcb4bb9b30e743e3c4be54c62191
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- 9b8ae7b7465135c483df3b374f9e09d430db61fef3a2fb9f2ff86749d9974196