Bulletin 6bb8aa93bb41
Issued on
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Namazu: earthquake forecast for Indonesia, with data as of November 2, 2026, 07:00 (UTC+7). After the magnitude 5.0 earthquake on October 30, 2026, 05:32 (time at the location, UTC+9), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.1 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter, from November 2, 2026, 09:00 (time at the location, UTC+9) to November 6, 2026, 05:32 (time at the location, UTC+9), is 2.0%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. After the magnitude 5.0 earthquake on October 30, 2026, 05:32 (time at the location, UTC+9), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.1 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until November 6, 2026, 05:32 (time at the location, UTC+9), calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 8.7%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. After the magnitude 5.7 earthquake on October 29, 2026, 07:06 (time at the location, UTC+9), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.8 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter, from November 2, 2026, 09:00 (time at the location, UTC+9) to November 5, 2026, 07:06 (time at the location, UTC+9), is 0.1%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. After the magnitude 5.7 earthquake on October 29, 2026, 07:06 (time at the location, UTC+9), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.8 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until November 5, 2026, 07:06 (time at the location, UTC+9), calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 0.9%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. After the magnitude 5.3 earthquake on October 29, 2026, 04:56 (time at the location, UTC+9), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.4 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter, from November 2, 2026, 09:00 (time at the location, UTC+9) to November 5, 2026, 04:56 (time at the location, UTC+9), is 1.0%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. After the magnitude 5.3 earthquake on October 29, 2026, 04:56 (time at the location, UTC+9), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.4 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until November 5, 2026, 04:56 (time at the location, UTC+9), calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 6.8%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. After the magnitude 5.4 earthquake on October 27, 2026, 21:44 (nautical time, UTC+7), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.5 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until November 3, 2026, 21:44 (nautical time, UTC+7), calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 15.5%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. After the magnitude 5.0 earthquake on October 26, 2026, 12:53 (time at the location, UTC+8), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.1 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until November 2, 2026, 12:53 (time at the location, UTC+8), calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 8.7%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. From November 2, 2026, 07:00 (UTC+7) to November 9, 2026, 07:00 (UTC+7), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or larger in the region is 95.0%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 07:00 (UTC+7) to November 9, 2026, 07:00 (UTC+7), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is 25.0%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 07:00 (UTC+7) to November 9, 2026, 07:00 (UTC+7), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 3.5%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 07:00 (UTC+7) to December 2, 2026, 07:00 (UTC+7), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or larger in the region is more than 99.9%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 07:00 (UTC+7) to December 2, 2026, 07:00 (UTC+7), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is 68.6%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 07:00 (UTC+7) to December 2, 2026, 07:00 (UTC+7), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 13.9%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 07:00 (UTC+7) to November 2, 2027, 07:00 (UTC+7), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is more than 99.9%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 07:00 (UTC+7) to November 2, 2027, 07:00 (UTC+7), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 74.2%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. Indonesia: National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB): https://www.bnpb.go.id/ Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG): https://www.bmkg.go.id/ Malaysia: National Disaster Management Agency (NADMA): https://www.nadma.gov.my/ Malaysian Meteorological Department (MET Malaysia): https://www.met.gov.my/ Australia: Check with your local authority. Geoscience Australia (National Earthquake Alerts Centre): https://www.ga.gov.au/ Timor-Leste: Check with your local authority. Palau: Check with your local authority. Thailand: Check with your local authority. Thai Meteorological Department (TMD), Earthquake Surveillance Division: https://www.tmd.go.th/en Christmas Island: Check with your local authority. Geoscience Australia (National Earthquake Alerts Centre): https://www.ga.gov.au/ Singapore: Singapore Civil Defence Force (SCDF): https://www.scdf.gov.sg/ Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS), National Environment Agency: https://www.weather.gov.sg/home/ Cocos (Keeling) Islands: Check with your local authority. Geoscience Australia (National Earthquake Alerts Centre): https://www.ga.gov.au/ Papua New Guinea: Check with your local authority. Whether this bulletin is still current, was replaced or was annulled, and the aftershock zone of each earthquake, are at https://proyectonamazu.com/en/indonesia/boletin/6bb8aa93bb41c77c8c191472043ddcf21c37d3ff8da3a355997e35f90ac17cba Namazu does not guess; it measures. These are probabilities. Data: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); Time zones: contains information from timezone-boundary-builder (https://github.com/evansiroky/timezone-boundary-builder), made available under the Open Database License (ODbL) (https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/)
- Full id:
- 6bb8aa93bb41c77c8c191472043ddcf21c37d3ff8da3a355997e35f90ac17cba
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- dfe82857b6237d8d7c160adad6348cfa7d708facf74acaa04ea0d7083c7cca1a