Bulletin a371f59fa167
Issued on
Namazu: earthquake forecast for Izu, Bonin and Mariana Islands, with data as of November 2, 2026, 09:00 (UTC+9). After the magnitude 5.4 earthquake on October 28, 2026, 09:14 (nautical time, UTC+10), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.5 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until November 4, 2026, 09:14 (nautical time, UTC+10), calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 1.3%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. From November 2, 2026, 09:00 (UTC+9) to November 9, 2026, 09:00 (UTC+9), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or larger in the region is 61.2%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 09:00 (UTC+9) to November 9, 2026, 09:00 (UTC+9), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is 6.5%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 09:00 (UTC+9) to November 9, 2026, 09:00 (UTC+9), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 0.5%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 09:00 (UTC+9) to December 2, 2026, 09:00 (UTC+9), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or larger in the region is 99.1%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 09:00 (UTC+9) to December 2, 2026, 09:00 (UTC+9), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is 24.6%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 09:00 (UTC+9) to December 2, 2026, 09:00 (UTC+9), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 2.1%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 09:00 (UTC+9) to November 2, 2027, 09:00 (UTC+9), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is 95.8%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 09:00 (UTC+9) to November 2, 2027, 09:00 (UTC+9), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 21.0%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. Japan: Cabinet Office, Disaster Management (Bosai); Fire and Disaster Management Agency (FDMA): https://www.bousai.go.jp/ Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA): https://www.jma.go.jp/jma/indexe.html Northern Mariana Islands: Check with your local authority. Guam: Guam Homeland Security / Office of Civil Defense (GHS/OCD): https://ghs.guam.gov/ Check with your local authority. Federated States of Micronesia: Check with your local authority. Whether this bulletin is still current, was replaced or was annulled, and the aftershock zone of each earthquake, are at https://proyectonamazu.com/en/izu-marianas/boletin/a371f59fa167281ac23f79c05687ab8851c0194dec35fa8d5c776dba8b752d65 Namazu does not guess; it measures. These are probabilities. Data: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); Time zones: contains information from timezone-boundary-builder (https://github.com/evansiroky/timezone-boundary-builder), made available under the Open Database License (ODbL) (https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/)
- Full id:
- a371f59fa167281ac23f79c05687ab8851c0194dec35fa8d5c776dba8b752d65
- Fingerprint:
- 77e334675be9ad983ead720d2ec8846344d1b1bc0cc47a686d38090f6dc498e3