Bulletin d89261e900ff
Issued on
Namazu: earthquake forecast for Japan, Kuril Islands and Kamchatka, with data as of November 2, 2026, 09:00 (UTC+9). After the magnitude 6.0 earthquake on November 1, 2026, 07:15 (nautical time, UTC+9), the probability of another one of magnitude 6.1 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter, from November 2, 2026, 09:00 (nautical time, UTC+9) to November 8, 2026, 07:15 (nautical time, UTC+9), is 0.2%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. After the magnitude 6.0 earthquake on November 1, 2026, 07:15 (nautical time, UTC+9), the probability of another one of magnitude 6.1 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until November 8, 2026, 07:15 (nautical time, UTC+9), calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 0.7%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. After the magnitude 5.5 earthquake on October 29, 2026, 00:07 (time at the location, UTC+9), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.6 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter, from November 2, 2026, 09:00 (time at the location, UTC+9) to November 5, 2026, 00:07 (time at the location, UTC+9), is 0.4%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. After the magnitude 5.5 earthquake on October 29, 2026, 00:07 (time at the location, UTC+9), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.6 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until November 5, 2026, 00:07 (time at the location, UTC+9), calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 3.3%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. After the magnitude 5.0 earthquake on October 28, 2026, 17:12 (nautical time, UTC+11), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.1 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter, from November 2, 2026, 11:00 (nautical time, UTC+11) to November 4, 2026, 17:12 (nautical time, UTC+11), is 1.0%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. After the magnitude 5.0 earthquake on October 28, 2026, 17:12 (nautical time, UTC+11), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.1 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until November 4, 2026, 17:12 (nautical time, UTC+11), calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 8.7%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. From November 2, 2026, 09:00 (UTC+9) to November 9, 2026, 09:00 (UTC+9), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or larger in the region is 83.5%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 09:00 (UTC+9) to November 9, 2026, 09:00 (UTC+9), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is 19.4%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 09:00 (UTC+9) to November 9, 2026, 09:00 (UTC+9), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 3.2%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 09:00 (UTC+9) to December 2, 2026, 09:00 (UTC+9), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or larger in the region is more than 99.9%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 09:00 (UTC+9) to December 2, 2026, 09:00 (UTC+9), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is 58.2%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 09:00 (UTC+9) to December 2, 2026, 09:00 (UTC+9), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 12.2%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 09:00 (UTC+9) to November 2, 2027, 09:00 (UTC+9), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is more than 99.9%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 09:00 (UTC+9) to November 2, 2027, 09:00 (UTC+9), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 78.7%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. Russia: Ministry of the Russian Federation for Civil Defence, Emergencies and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters (EMERCOM / MChS): https://mchs.gov.ru/ Check with your local authority. Japan: Cabinet Office, Disaster Management (Bosai); Fire and Disaster Management Agency (FDMA): https://www.bousai.go.jp/ Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA): https://www.jma.go.jp/jma/indexe.html China: Ministry of Emergency Management of the People's Republic of China (MEM): https://www.mem.gov.cn/ Check with your local authority. South Korea: Ministry of the Interior and Safety (MOIS): https://www.mois.go.kr/frt/a01/frtMain.do Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA): https://www.kma.go.kr/eng/index.do North Korea: Check with your local authority. Whether this bulletin is still current, was replaced or was annulled, and the aftershock zone of each earthquake, are at https://proyectonamazu.com/en/japon-kuriles-kamchatka/boletin/d89261e900ff5595fb88b1c206763c50773d349fe32b6493f36e7375c1be3718 Namazu does not guess; it measures. These are probabilities. Data: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); Time zones: contains information from timezone-boundary-builder (https://github.com/evansiroky/timezone-boundary-builder), made available under the Open Database License (ODbL) (https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/)
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