Bulletin be5302ee88e2
Issued on
Namazu: earthquake forecast for Panama, Colombia and Ecuador, with data as of November 1, 2026, 19:00 (UTC−5). After the magnitude 5.2 earthquake on October 31, 2026, 10:50 (time at the location, UTC−5), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.3 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter, from November 1, 2026, 19:00 (time at the location, UTC−5) to November 7, 2026, 10:50 (time at the location, UTC−5), is 4.9%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. After the magnitude 5.2 earthquake on October 31, 2026, 10:50 (time at the location, UTC−5), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.3 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until November 7, 2026, 10:50 (time at the location, UTC−5), calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 11.7%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. After the magnitude 5.0 earthquake on October 27, 2026, 10:26 (time at the location, UTC−5), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.1 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until November 3, 2026, 10:26 (time at the location, UTC−5), calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 8.7%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. From November 1, 2026, 19:00 (UTC−5) to November 8, 2026, 19:00 (UTC−5), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or larger in the region is 29.4%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 1, 2026, 19:00 (UTC−5) to November 8, 2026, 19:00 (UTC−5), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is 4.5%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 1, 2026, 19:00 (UTC−5) to November 8, 2026, 19:00 (UTC−5), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 0.6%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 1, 2026, 19:00 (UTC−5) to December 1, 2026, 19:00 (UTC−5), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or larger in the region is 76.9%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 1, 2026, 19:00 (UTC−5) to December 1, 2026, 19:00 (UTC−5), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is 18.1%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 1, 2026, 19:00 (UTC−5) to December 1, 2026, 19:00 (UTC−5), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 2.4%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 1, 2026, 19:00 (UTC−5) to November 1, 2027, 19:00 (UTC−5), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is 92.2%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 1, 2026, 19:00 (UTC−5) to November 1, 2027, 19:00 (UTC−5), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 22.2%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. Colombia: Unidad Nacional para la Gestión del Riesgo de Desastres (UNGRD): https://portal.gestiondelriesgo.gov.co/ Check with your local authority. Ecuador: Servicio Nacional de Gestión de Riesgos y Emergencias: https://www.gestionderiesgos.gob.ec Instituto Geofísico de la Escuela Politécnica Nacional (IG-EPN): https://www.igepn.edu.ec Peru: Check with your local authority. Instituto Geofísico del Perú (IGP), Centro Sismológico Nacional (CENSIS): https://ultimosismo.igp.gob.pe/ Panama: Check with your local authority. Instituto de Geociencias, Universidad de Panamá (IGC-UP): https://sismosgeociencias.up.ac.pa/ Venezuela: Dirección Nacional de Protección Civil y Administración de Desastres (DNPCAD): https://www.pcivil.gob.ve/ Check with your local authority. Costa Rica: Check with your local authority. Red Sismológica Nacional (RSN: UCR-ICE): https://rsn.ucr.ac.cr Whether this bulletin is still current, was replaced or was annulled, and the aftershock zone of each earthquake, are at https://proyectonamazu.com/en/panama-colombia-ecuador/boletin/be5302ee88e24133f889b5b77791244bdeb4ae051cc00ea5286c41808016e8df Namazu does not guess; it measures. These are probabilities. Data: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); Time zones: contains information from timezone-boundary-builder (https://github.com/evansiroky/timezone-boundary-builder), made available under the Open Database License (ODbL) (https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/)
- Full id:
- be5302ee88e24133f889b5b77791244bdeb4ae051cc00ea5286c41808016e8df
- Fingerprint:
- 0516d750718c057cec6849056d25c72f1c2fb37cc0898c24d560117063d6ee50