Bulletin 70512cb09c45
Issued on
Namazu: earthquake forecast for Tonga, Kermadec and New Zealand, with data as of November 2, 2026, 14:36 (UTC+13). After the magnitude 5.1 earthquake on November 1, 2026, 13:18 (nautical time, UTC−12), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.2 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until November 8, 2026, 13:18 (nautical time, UTC−12), calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 8.1%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. After the magnitude 5.0 earthquake on October 26, 2026, 21:07 (nautical time, UTC−12), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.1 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until November 2, 2026, 21:07 (nautical time, UTC−12), calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 13.5%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. After the magnitude 5.5 earthquake on October 26, 2026, 22:13 (time at the location, UTC+12), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.6 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until November 2, 2026, 22:13 (time at the location, UTC+12), calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 1.1%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. From November 2, 2026, 13:00 (UTC+13) to November 9, 2026, 13:00 (UTC+13), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or larger in the region is 97.0%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 13:00 (UTC+13) to November 9, 2026, 13:00 (UTC+13), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is 25.6%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 13:00 (UTC+13) to November 9, 2026, 13:00 (UTC+13), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 2.8%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 13:00 (UTC+13) to December 2, 2026, 13:00 (UTC+13), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or larger in the region is more than 99.9%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 13:00 (UTC+13) to December 2, 2026, 13:00 (UTC+13), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is 70.0%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 13:00 (UTC+13) to December 2, 2026, 13:00 (UTC+13), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 11.5%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 13:00 (UTC+13) to November 2, 2027, 13:00 (UTC+13), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is more than 99.9%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 13:00 (UTC+13) to November 2, 2027, 13:00 (UTC+13), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 81.1%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. New Zealand: Check with your local authority. GeoNet (Earth Sciences New Zealand, with Natural Hazards Commission and LINZ): https://www.geonet.org.nz/ Fiji: Check with your local authority. Tonga: Check with your local authority. Tonga Meteorological Services (Ministry of MEIDECC): https://www.met.gov.to/ Samoa: Disaster Management Office, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MNRE): https://www.mnre.gov.ws/ Check with your local authority. American Samoa: Check with your local authority. Wallis and Futuna: Préfet des îles Wallis et Futuna (services de l'État, sécurité civile): https://www.wallis-et-futuna.gouv.fr/ Check with your local authority. Niue: Niue Disaster Management (Government of Niue): https://www.gov.nu/ Check with your local authority. New Caledonia: Gouvernement de la Nouvelle-Calédonie (sécurité civile); Haut-commissariat de la République: https://www.gouv.nc/ Check with your local authority. Whether this bulletin is still current, was replaced or was annulled, and the aftershock zone of each earthquake, are at https://proyectonamazu.com/en/tonga-kermadec-nueva-zelanda/boletin/70512cb09c452403e1c9bfd63825f094fd3c8511c26e2abd41342a6100f2e2f1 Namazu does not guess; it measures. These are probabilities. Data: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); Time zones: contains information from timezone-boundary-builder (https://github.com/evansiroky/timezone-boundary-builder), made available under the Open Database License (ODbL) (https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/)
- Full id:
- 70512cb09c452403e1c9bfd63825f094fd3c8511c26e2abd41342a6100f2e2f1
- Fingerprint:
- f5f0e6ddd63cc8782e9f2db55f1a4780bae5458c21e3f8038720ccf5faf5c2ef