Bulletin 73a9c7ba57e4
Issued on
Namazu: earthquake forecast for Vanuatu, Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea, with data as of November 2, 2026, 10:00 (UTC+10). After the magnitude 5.1 earthquake on October 30, 2026, 13:04 (time at the location, UTC+10), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.2 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter, from November 2, 2026, 10:00 (time at the location, UTC+10) to November 6, 2026, 13:04 (time at the location, UTC+10), is 0.3%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. After the magnitude 5.1 earthquake on October 30, 2026, 13:04 (time at the location, UTC+10), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.2 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until November 6, 2026, 13:04 (time at the location, UTC+10), calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 1.7%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. After the magnitude 6.2 earthquake on October 30, 2026, 08:46 (time at the location, UTC+11), the probability of another one of magnitude 6.3 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter, from November 2, 2026, 11:00 (time at the location, UTC+11) to November 6, 2026, 08:46 (time at the location, UTC+11), is 0.2%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. After the magnitude 6.2 earthquake on October 30, 2026, 08:46 (time at the location, UTC+11), the probability of another one of magnitude 6.3 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until November 6, 2026, 08:46 (time at the location, UTC+11), calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 1.0%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. After the magnitude 5.7 earthquake on October 29, 2026, 13:26 (time at the location, UTC+10), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.8 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter, from November 2, 2026, 10:00 (time at the location, UTC+10) to November 5, 2026, 13:26 (time at the location, UTC+10), is 0.7%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. After the magnitude 5.7 earthquake on October 29, 2026, 13:26 (time at the location, UTC+10), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.8 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until November 5, 2026, 13:26 (time at the location, UTC+10), calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 4.8%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. After the magnitude 5.4 earthquake on October 29, 2026, 11:08 (time at the location, UTC+11), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.5 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter, from November 2, 2026, 11:00 (time at the location, UTC+11) to November 5, 2026, 11:08 (time at the location, UTC+11), is 1.8%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. After the magnitude 5.4 earthquake on October 29, 2026, 11:08 (time at the location, UTC+11), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.5 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until November 5, 2026, 11:08 (time at the location, UTC+11), calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 10.1%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. From November 2, 2026, 10:00 (UTC+10) to November 9, 2026, 10:00 (UTC+10), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or larger in the region is 95.5%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 10:00 (UTC+10) to November 9, 2026, 10:00 (UTC+10), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is 31.1%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 10:00 (UTC+10) to November 9, 2026, 10:00 (UTC+10), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 4.3%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 10:00 (UTC+10) to December 2, 2026, 10:00 (UTC+10), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or larger in the region is more than 99.9%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 10:00 (UTC+10) to December 2, 2026, 10:00 (UTC+10), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is 79.4%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 10:00 (UTC+10) to December 2, 2026, 10:00 (UTC+10), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 16.2%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 10:00 (UTC+10) to November 2, 2027, 10:00 (UTC+10), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is more than 99.9%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From November 2, 2026, 10:00 (UTC+10) to November 2, 2027, 10:00 (UTC+10), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 88.7%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. Papua New Guinea: Check with your local authority. Solomon Islands: Check with your local authority. Geological Survey Division, Ministry of Mines, Energy and Rural Electrification (MMERE): https://www.mmere.gov.sb/ Vanuatu: National Disaster Management Office (NDMO): https://ndmo.gov.vu/ Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department (VMGD): https://www.vmgd.gov.vu/ New Caledonia: Gouvernement de la Nouvelle-Calédonie (sécurité civile); Haut-commissariat de la République: https://www.gouv.nc/ Check with your local authority. Australia: Check with your local authority. Geoscience Australia (National Earthquake Alerts Centre): https://www.ga.gov.au/ Federated States of Micronesia: Check with your local authority. Whether this bulletin is still current, was replaced or was annulled, and the aftershock zone of each earthquake, are at https://proyectonamazu.com/en/vanuatu-salomon-png/boletin/73a9c7ba57e4314a25d682a7eb2749a598bdeae39ccc8bddcadc12091e1d6737 Namazu does not guess; it measures. These are probabilities. Data: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); Time zones: contains information from timezone-boundary-builder (https://github.com/evansiroky/timezone-boundary-builder), made available under the Open Database License (ODbL) (https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/)
- Full id:
- 73a9c7ba57e4314a25d682a7eb2749a598bdeae39ccc8bddcadc12091e1d6737
- Fingerprint:
- 5afdbde3e243dbde4566d74b14d4c3d2ed983f84d54b95818f42b6c7c6623483