Bulletin 67c2871ae835

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Namazu: earthquake forecast for Philippines and Taiwan, with data as of November 2, 2026, 07:26 (UTC+8).

After the magnitude 5.7 earthquake on October 29, 2026, 11:19 (nautical time, UTC+8), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.8 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until November 5, 2026, 11:19 (nautical time, UTC+8), calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 12.7%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time.

After the magnitude 5.2 earthquake on October 28, 2026, 09:11 (time at the location, UTC+8), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.3 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until November 4, 2026, 09:11 (time at the location, UTC+8), calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 12.0%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time.

From October 26, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8) to November 2, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or larger in the region is 76.2%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length.

From October 26, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8) to November 2, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is 13.7%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length.

From October 26, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8) to November 2, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 1.4%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length.

From October 26, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8) to November 25, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or larger in the region is 99.8%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length.

From October 26, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8) to November 25, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is 47.4%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length.

From October 26, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8) to November 25, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 6.2%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length.

From October 26, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8) to October 26, 2027, 08:00 (UTC+8), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is more than 99.9%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length.

From October 26, 2026, 08:00 (UTC+8) to October 26, 2027, 08:00 (UTC+8), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 56.5%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length.

Philippines: Check with your local authority. Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), DOST: https://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/

Taiwan: National Fire Agency, Ministry of the Interior: https://www.nfa.gov.tw/eng/index.php Central Weather Administration (CWA): https://www.cwa.gov.tw/eng/

Malaysia: National Disaster Management Agency (NADMA): https://www.nadma.gov.my/ Malaysian Meteorological Department (MET Malaysia): https://www.met.gov.my/

Japan: Cabinet Office, Disaster Management (Bosai); Fire and Disaster Management Agency (FDMA): https://www.bousai.go.jp/ Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA): https://www.jma.go.jp/jma/indexe.html

China: Ministry of Emergency Management of the People's Republic of China (MEM): https://www.mem.gov.cn/ Check with your local authority.

Indonesia: National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB): https://www.bnpb.go.id/ Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG): https://www.bmkg.go.id/

Whether this bulletin is still current, was replaced or was annulled, and the aftershock zone of each earthquake, are at https://proyectonamazu.com/en/filipinas-taiwan/boletin/67c2871ae83543edc878196f0b4ec317bd27ca034598ca652c1307ce720d1449

Namazu does not guess; it measures. These are probabilities. Data: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); Time zones: contains information from timezone-boundary-builder (https://github.com/evansiroky/timezone-boundary-builder), made available under the Open Database License (ODbL) (https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/)

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67c2871ae83543edc878196f0b4ec317bd27ca034598ca652c1307ce720d1449

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