Bulletin ad7123e35ea3

There is a more recent bulletin for this region. See the most recent

Namazu: earthquake forecast for Panama, Colombia and Ecuador, with data as of November 1, 2026, 18:26 (UTC−5).

After the magnitude 5.2 earthquake on October 31, 2026, 10:50 (time at the location, UTC−5), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.3 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until November 7, 2026, 10:50 (time at the location, UTC−5), calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 11.7%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time.

After the magnitude 5.0 earthquake on October 27, 2026, 10:26 (time at the location, UTC−5), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.1 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until November 3, 2026, 10:26 (time at the location, UTC−5), calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 8.7%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time.

From October 25, 2026, 19:00 (UTC−5) to November 1, 2026, 19:00 (UTC−5), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or larger in the region is 29.3%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length.

From October 25, 2026, 19:00 (UTC−5) to November 1, 2026, 19:00 (UTC−5), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is 4.5%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length.

From October 25, 2026, 19:00 (UTC−5) to November 1, 2026, 19:00 (UTC−5), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 0.6%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length.

From October 25, 2026, 19:00 (UTC−5) to November 24, 2026, 19:00 (UTC−5), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or larger in the region is 76.9%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length.

From October 25, 2026, 19:00 (UTC−5) to November 24, 2026, 19:00 (UTC−5), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is 18.0%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length.

From October 25, 2026, 19:00 (UTC−5) to November 24, 2026, 19:00 (UTC−5), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 2.3%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length.

From October 25, 2026, 19:00 (UTC−5) to October 25, 2027, 19:00 (UTC−5), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is 92.2%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length.

From October 25, 2026, 19:00 (UTC−5) to October 25, 2027, 19:00 (UTC−5), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 22.1%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length.

Colombia: Unidad Nacional para la Gestión del Riesgo de Desastres (UNGRD): https://portal.gestiondelriesgo.gov.co/ Check with your local authority.

Ecuador: Servicio Nacional de Gestión de Riesgos y Emergencias: https://www.gestionderiesgos.gob.ec Instituto Geofísico de la Escuela Politécnica Nacional (IG-EPN): https://www.igepn.edu.ec

Peru: Check with your local authority. Instituto Geofísico del Perú (IGP), Centro Sismológico Nacional (CENSIS): https://ultimosismo.igp.gob.pe/

Panama: Check with your local authority. Instituto de Geociencias, Universidad de Panamá (IGC-UP): https://sismosgeociencias.up.ac.pa/

Venezuela: Dirección Nacional de Protección Civil y Administración de Desastres (DNPCAD): https://www.pcivil.gob.ve/ Check with your local authority.

Costa Rica: Check with your local authority. Red Sismológica Nacional (RSN: UCR-ICE): https://rsn.ucr.ac.cr

Whether this bulletin is still current, was replaced or was annulled, and the aftershock zone of each earthquake, are at https://proyectonamazu.com/en/panama-colombia-ecuador/boletin/ad7123e35ea3c1d6ac8fa9aa6f7a5bdb041d8c2498e769d4e44b08289518ab15

Namazu does not guess; it measures. These are probabilities. Data: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); Time zones: contains information from timezone-boundary-builder (https://github.com/evansiroky/timezone-boundary-builder), made available under the Open Database License (ODbL) (https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/)

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ad7123e35ea3c1d6ac8fa9aa6f7a5bdb041d8c2498e769d4e44b08289518ab15

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