Bulletin 607864afb13f
Issued on
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Namazu: earthquake forecast for Vanuatu, Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea, with data as of November 2, 2026, 09:26 (UTC+10). After the magnitude 5.1 earthquake on October 30, 2026, 13:04 (time at the location, UTC+10), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.2 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until November 6, 2026, 13:04 (time at the location, UTC+10), calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 1.7%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. After the magnitude 6.2 earthquake on October 30, 2026, 08:46 (time at the location, UTC+11), the probability of another one of magnitude 6.3 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until November 6, 2026, 08:46 (time at the location, UTC+11), calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 1.0%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. After the magnitude 5.7 earthquake on October 29, 2026, 13:26 (time at the location, UTC+10), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.8 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until November 5, 2026, 13:26 (time at the location, UTC+10), calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 4.8%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. After the magnitude 5.4 earthquake on October 29, 2026, 11:08 (time at the location, UTC+11), the probability of another one of magnitude 5.5 or larger within 50 km of the epicenter until November 5, 2026, 11:08 (time at the location, UTC+11), calculated when the earthquake occurred, is 10.1%. On average, an earthquake like this is followed by a larger one 5.4% of the time. From October 26, 2026, 10:00 (UTC+10) to November 2, 2026, 10:00 (UTC+10), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or larger in the region is 95.5%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From October 26, 2026, 10:00 (UTC+10) to November 2, 2026, 10:00 (UTC+10), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is 31.1%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From October 26, 2026, 10:00 (UTC+10) to November 2, 2026, 10:00 (UTC+10), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 4.3%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From October 26, 2026, 10:00 (UTC+10) to November 25, 2026, 10:00 (UTC+10), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or larger in the region is more than 99.9%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From October 26, 2026, 10:00 (UTC+10) to November 25, 2026, 10:00 (UTC+10), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is 79.4%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From October 26, 2026, 10:00 (UTC+10) to November 25, 2026, 10:00 (UTC+10), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 16.2%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From October 26, 2026, 10:00 (UTC+10) to October 26, 2027, 10:00 (UTC+10), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or larger in the region is more than 99.9%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. From October 26, 2026, 10:00 (UTC+10) to October 26, 2027, 10:00 (UTC+10), the probability of at least one earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or larger in the region is 88.7%. This is how often one has occurred in the region over periods of the same length. Papua New Guinea: Check with your local authority. Solomon Islands: Check with your local authority. Geological Survey Division, Ministry of Mines, Energy and Rural Electrification (MMERE): https://www.mmere.gov.sb/ Vanuatu: National Disaster Management Office (NDMO): https://ndmo.gov.vu/ Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department (VMGD): https://www.vmgd.gov.vu/ New Caledonia: Gouvernement de la Nouvelle-Calédonie (sécurité civile); Haut-commissariat de la République: https://www.gouv.nc/ Check with your local authority. Australia: Check with your local authority. Geoscience Australia (National Earthquake Alerts Centre): https://www.ga.gov.au/ Federated States of Micronesia: Check with your local authority. Whether this bulletin is still current, was replaced or was annulled, and the aftershock zone of each earthquake, are at https://proyectonamazu.com/en/vanuatu-salomon-png/boletin/607864afb13f8a29260910c6e56f5b710316ed23063d66c8cd5b24aed595baf7 Namazu does not guess; it measures. These are probabilities. Data: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); Time zones: contains information from timezone-boundary-builder (https://github.com/evansiroky/timezone-boundary-builder), made available under the Open Database License (ODbL) (https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/)
- Full id:
- 607864afb13f8a29260910c6e56f5b710316ed23063d66c8cd5b24aed595baf7
- Fingerprint:
- 25a9f9d47c24b99122e13a5c776a8cd7c02cf9e95ec5fbc442a39cd8dda0d71d